KATL / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u

ICONNO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:50:50+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T10:07:24+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T11:37:38+00:00	23.6%	6.8%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T12:23:13+00:00	23.6%	5.9%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	23.6%	5.9%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T13:53:31+00:00	21.5%	5.9%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	21.5%	5.9%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T15:27:21+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:14+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	19.3%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	29.9%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	29.9%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	21.5%	6.4%	29.9%	25.4%	23.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-09T22:59:42+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T00:30:00+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	34.6%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T02:00:42+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T02:45:59+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T04:16:43+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T05:03:04+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	29.9%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	52.9%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	57.3%
2026-10-10T08:03:31+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T10:18:56+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T11:04:04+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	38.8%	4.7%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	38.8%	4.7%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T13:19:25+00:00	38.8%	4.7%	13.6%	21.1%	20.9%
2026-10-10T14:04:46+00:00	31.1%	5.0%	13.7%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T14:53:46+00:00	31.1%	5.0%	13.7%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T15:39:26+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	13.7%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T16:24:37+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	13.7%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T17:09:44+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T17:54:54+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T18:40:20+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T19:25:32+00:00	31.1%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	21.0%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	22.2%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	22.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	27.6%	21.1%	22.2%
2026-10-10T22:26:44+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	27.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:44+00:00	29.8%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T01:28:59+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T03:44:37+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:40+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.6%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.0%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.0%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:24+00:00	24.2%	4.8%	16.0%	32.4%	22.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:39+00:00	25.0%	4.8%	16.0%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	25.0%	4.8%	16.0%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	25.0%	4.8%	16.0%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	25.0%	4.8%	16.0%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:33+00:00	25.0%	4.8%	16.0%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:43+00:00	25.0%	1.5%	28.5%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	25.0%	1.5%	28.5%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	25.0%	1.5%	28.5%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	21.3%	1.5%	28.5%	30.7%	22.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	21.3%	1.5%	28.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T15:11:27+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	28.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:17+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	28.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	28.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	21.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:07+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	21.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	21.3%	1.3%	21.5%	30.8%	22.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:29+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	21.5%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	21.5%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:49+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	21.5%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	21.5%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	21.5%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:29+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:08+00:00	46.7%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:06+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	43.2%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	51.0%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	51.0%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	47.6%	1.3%	51.0%	27.8%	20.7%
2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	51.0%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	51.0%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	51.0%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	51.0%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	51.0%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:23+00:00	49.1%	1.3%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	49.1%	1.5%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	49.1%	1.5%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	31.6%	1.5%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	31.6%	1.5%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	31.6%	1.5%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	31.6%	1.2%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	31.6%	1.2%	48.9%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	31.6%	1.2%	38.4%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	31.6%	1.2%	38.4%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	31.6%	1.2%	38.4%	32.3%	20.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	38.4%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	38.4%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	38.4%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	38.4%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	32.4%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T04:15:21+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	43.6%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	48.9%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	48.9%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	30.1%	1.5%	48.9%	23.0%	16.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:47+00:00	28.1%	1.5%	48.9%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	28.1%	1.5%	48.9%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	28.1%	1.5%	48.9%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	28.1%	1.5%	48.9%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	28.1%	1.5%	48.9%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	28.1%	1.0%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	28.1%	1.0%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	28.1%	1.0%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	22.8%	1.0%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	22.8%	1.0%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	41.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	22.8%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	15.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	5.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	5.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	5.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	32.8%	14.7%	5.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	20.8%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	5.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	21.0%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	4.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	21.0%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	4.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	21.0%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	4.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	21.0%	0.9%	29.7%	13.2%	4.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:17+00:00	21.0%	0.9%	29.7%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	21.0%	1.8%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	21.0%	1.8%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	21.0%	1.8%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	19.6%	1.8%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	19.5%	2.1%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:04+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	31.4%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	19.5%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	4.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	21.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	19.2%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	27.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	27.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	17.6%	2.2%	27.0%	9.4%	2.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	27.0%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	27.0%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	27.0%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	27.0%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	27.0%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	18.8%	2.2%	19.6%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	18.8%	3.1%	19.6%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	18.8%	3.1%	19.6%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	16.9%	3.1%	19.6%	8.5%	1.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	16.9%	3.4%	18.6%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	18.6%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	18.6%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	9.0%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	9.0%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	9.0%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	9.0%	8.5%	1.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	9.0%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	9.0%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	9.0%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	9.0%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	17.5%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	18.8%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	18.8%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	18.8%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	18.8%	3.7%	8.5%	7.3%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	19%	86.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0353
WeatherNext 2	8%	85.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0072
IFS HRES	7%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0053
NWS forecast	4%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.0014
IFS Ensemble	4%	84.6°F	2.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0014
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0006
ICON	1%	81.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261016-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Atlanta · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗