WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KATL / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
19%
WN2
8%
HRES
7%
EPS
4%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u
VS
ICONNO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 32.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 16.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0010-01 06:0010-09 00:0010-16 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:000.4%————1.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:000.0%—8.3%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0015.6%————1.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0024.0%————1.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:000.3%————1.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:001.5%————2.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:005.8%————2.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.3%————2.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0014.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.4%————2.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.3%————1.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.3%—0.3%——1.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0011.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.5%————0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.7%—1.2%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0033.5%—11.3%——3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.2%—12.4%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0011.3%—41.0%——3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.7%—22.7%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:009.0%2.7%35.5%——3.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:007.1%—36.5%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0014.1%32.3%18.9%17.5%—3.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0025.9%—36.0%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0016.5%4.8%42.0%10.0%—3.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—34.0%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0010.0%4.6%23.4%11.8%—3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:006.9%—21.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.8%1.1%29.5%20.6%—9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:005.8%0.9%35.6%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0018.4%6.1%38.5%14.8%—10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0019.6%11.1%13.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0019.6%11.3%36.3%11.3%—14.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:009.2%8.1%31.0%——0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.6%7.6%29.7%12.4%—9.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.0%12.7%26.1%——6.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:006.2%12.6%28.7%8.6%—6.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:004.0%10.0%21.9%——5.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.0%3.4%27.6%6.1%—5.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.8%6.2%27.1%——4.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.8%5.6%26.4%3.5%—3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:002.1%2.4%22.3%0.0%—2.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.5%3.1%19.9%2.2%16.0%2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.2%3.1%19.1%1.9%—2.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.1%2.5%19.9%1.6%11.8%2.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.8%0.9%15.8%0.8%—1.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%1.2%20.0%0.5%6.5%1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.6%2.0%13.9%0.4%—1.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.8%2.1%10.8%0.5%2.9%0.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.4%0.9%6.5%0.2%—0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.6%11.0%0.1%2.4%0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%6.3%0.2%—0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single19%86.0°F4.0°F2026-10-15 18:000.0353
WeatherNext 28%85.5°F2.9°F2026-10-15 12:000.0072
IFS HRES7%84.1°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:000.0053
NWS forecast4%84.0°F3.1°F2026-10-15 15:000.0014
IFS Ensemble4%84.6°F2.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0014
National Blend2%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:000.0006
ICON1%81.5°F3.5°F2026-10-15 12:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261016-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 09 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Atlanta · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗