KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

52%

44%

40%

36%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.20u

AIFSNO 32.8¢Risks 32.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.80u · AIFS −32.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:06+00:00	67.5%	95.1%	68.6%	57.9%	81.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	67.5%	95.1%	68.6%	57.9%	81.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	67.5%	95.1%	73.8%	57.9%	81.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	67.5%	95.1%	73.8%	57.9%	81.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	67.5%	95.1%	73.8%	57.9%	81.6%
2026-10-12T07:47:49+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	73.8%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	73.8%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	73.8%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	73.8%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	73.8%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:23+00:00	72.3%	95.1%	77.0%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	72.3%	99.8%	77.0%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	72.3%	99.8%	77.0%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	62.8%	99.8%	77.0%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	62.8%	99.8%	76.9%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	62.8%	99.8%	76.9%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	62.8%	99.7%	76.9%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	62.8%	99.7%	76.9%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	62.8%	99.7%	63.4%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	62.8%	99.7%	63.4%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	62.8%	99.7%	63.4%	56.2%	84.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	63.4%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	63.4%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	63.4%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	63.4%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	63.5%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:21+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	59.7%	99.7%	66.2%	53.5%	74.6%
2026-10-13T08:02:47+00:00	43.1%	99.7%	66.2%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	43.1%	99.7%	66.2%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	43.1%	99.7%	66.2%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	43.1%	99.7%	66.2%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	43.1%	99.7%	66.2%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	43.1%	97.7%	42.6%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	43.1%	97.7%	42.6%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	43.1%	97.7%	42.6%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	39.7%	97.6%	42.5%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	39.7%	97.6%	42.5%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	42.5%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	42.5%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	39.7%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	63.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	46.8%	52.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	44.0%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	36.4%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	36.4%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	36.4%	98.0%	40.4%	44.4%	52.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9604
National Blend	57%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3260
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
ICON	52%	68.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2756
IFS HRES	44%	67.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1971
WeatherNext 2	40%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
AIFS Single	36%	66.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1325

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗