KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

52%

44%

40%

36%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.20u

AIFSNO 32.8¢Risks 32.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.80u · AIFS −32.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	79.1%	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	98.3%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	92.5%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	84.5%	99.2%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	79.1%	98.0%	97.4%	—	73.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	97.8%	99.3%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	70.4%	56.1%	70.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	74.5%	91.3%	45.2%	—	49.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	51.6%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	60.7%	76.8%	36.9%	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	38.2%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	50.9%	77.9%	13.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	44.6%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	38.2%	68.6%	24.4%	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	36.1%	67.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	95.8%	63.4%	51.0%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	56.0%	66.5%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	93.6%	74.9%	31.2%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	93.2%	64.5%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	95.5%	60.8%	16.2%	99.8%	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	94.6%	61.1%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	96.2%	71.0%	30.0%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	98.3%	80.9%	15.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	97.4%	92.0%	29.8%	99.9%	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	96.0%	97.4%	21.9%	—	18.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	95.7%	92.6%	21.0%	100.0%	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	93.8%	71.2%	14.7%	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	90.5%	82.8%	16.3%	99.7%	9.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	16.2%	60.5%	17.2%	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	14.2%	60.9%	18.1%	8.9%	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	46.7%	19.2%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9604
National Blend	57%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.3260
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
ICON	52%	68.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.2756
IFS HRES	44%	67.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1971
WeatherNext 2	40%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1632
AIFS Single	36%	66.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.1325

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗