KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≤ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

18%

14%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.90u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.10u · EPS −88.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:32:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:47+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	5.0%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	5.0%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	5.0%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	5.0%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	18.1%	0.0%	5.0%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	18.1%	0.2%	12.4%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	18.1%	0.2%	12.4%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	18.1%	0.2%	12.4%	17.9%	8.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	12.4%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	12.4%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	12.4%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	12.4%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	20.4%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	8.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	13.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	13.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	13.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	17.9%	13.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	17.5%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:26+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	23.0%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	13.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	0.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	0.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	0.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	13.5%	19.5%	0.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:17+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	13.5%	23.7%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0562
AIFS Single	18%	67.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0310
WeatherNext 2	14%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0182
National Blend	13%	67.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0169
NWS forecast	12%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0156
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗