KATL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≤ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

18%

14%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.90u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.10u · EPS −88.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	3.1%	0.1%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	4.5%	0.2%	0.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	0.2%	0.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	6.8%	13.4%	6.8%	—	21.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	4.9%	0.9%	18.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	14.4%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	9.3%	3.8%	23.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	22.0%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	13.1%	3.1%	50.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	16.1%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	19.6%	5.0%	32.2%	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	20.3%	5.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.2%	5.9%	10.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	8.0%	4.7%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	0.2%	2.5%	21.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	0.2%	4.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	0.1%	5.0%	35.1%	0.0%	44.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.1%	4.5%	92.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	0.1%	2.2%	17.5%	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	0.0%	0.9%	31.4%	—	82.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	0.0%	0.1%	15.1%	0.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.0%	0.1%	19.1%	0.0%	21.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	0.1%	1.1%	24.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	0.1%	0.3%	20.2%	0.0%	30.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	18.1%	1.5%	17.2%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	18.1%	1.2%	14.2%	26.3%	30.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	11.5%	2.3%	11.5%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0562
AIFS Single	18%	67.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0310
WeatherNext 2	14%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0182
National Blend	13%	67.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0169
NWS forecast	12%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0156
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000
ICON	<1%	76.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261017-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗