KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

78%

62%

56%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.05u · ICON −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	69.9%	66.4%	76.6%	54.0%	68.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	69.9%	66.4%	77.4%	54.0%	68.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	69.9%	66.4%	77.4%	54.0%	68.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	69.9%	66.4%	77.4%	54.0%	68.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	77.4%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	77.4%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	77.4%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	77.4%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	77.4%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	77.9%	66.4%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	77.9%	59.1%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	77.9%	59.1%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	74.3%	59.1%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	74.4%	59.0%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	74.4%	61.3%	76.2%	53.6%	71.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	72.8%	61.3%	72.4%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	72.8%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:50+00:00	72.8%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	72.8%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	72.8%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	66.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	73.0%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	73.0%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	73.0%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	73.0%	61.3%	73.3%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	73.0%	70.8%	70.8%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	73.0%	70.8%	70.8%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	73.0%	70.8%	70.8%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	73.0%	70.8%	70.8%	55.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	76.2%	70.4%	70.8%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	76.2%	74.0%	70.8%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	70.8%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	70.8%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	59.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	68.6%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	76.2%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	73.0%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	56.8%	61.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	78.4%	74.4%	78.1%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	78.4%	78.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	78.4%	78.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	78.4%	78.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	76.9%	78.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	76.9%	77.6%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	76.9%	79.1%	75.4%	64.7%	51.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	76.1%	79.1%	75.4%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	76.1%	79.1%	75.4%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	76.1%	79.1%	75.4%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	76.1%	79.1%	75.4%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	76.1%	79.1%	75.4%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	76.1%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	76.1%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	76.1%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	73.2%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	82.3%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	82.3%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	82.3%	61.6%	55.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	78.4%	79.0%	82.3%	61.6%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗