KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

78%

62%

56%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.05u · ICON −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	54.4%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	11.7%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	25.4%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	54.2%	33.6%	78.6%	—	64.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	80.1%	72.8%	78.5%	—	72.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	94.8%	76.1%	83.1%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	87.3%	73.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	18.9%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	79.3%	88.8%	59.9%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	59.3%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	53.5%	80.4%	57.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	49.1%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	55.5%	74.1%	56.4%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	57.5%	69.9%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	65.2%	67.8%	66.1%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	56.0%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	60.2%	71.5%	54.1%	—	44.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	70.2%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	54.4%	86.3%	54.4%	—	46.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	59.0%	92.5%	0.8%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	64.8%	90.0%	60.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	67.5%	88.0%	64.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	66.9%	89.4%	65.8%	45.0%	53.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	65.1%	89.7%	66.3%	—	55.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	72.7%	92.1%	65.7%	40.7%	54.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	72.4%	92.9%	67.5%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	78.8%	94.5%	69.5%	55.8%	58.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	72.8%	95.9%	70.2%	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.6%	68.3%	96.6%	62.4%	46.8%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	75.9%	92.7%	74.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗