KATL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≤ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

38%

22%

21%

18%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

WN2NO 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.95u · WN2 −68.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	79.4%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	45.6%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	88.3%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	74.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	45.8%	66.4%	21.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	19.9%	27.2%	21.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	23.9%	16.9%	—	34.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	21.8%	12.7%	26.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	81.0%	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	20.7%	11.2%	40.1%	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	40.7%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	46.5%	19.6%	43.0%	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	50.9%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	44.5%	25.9%	43.6%	—	71.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	42.5%	30.1%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	34.8%	32.1%	33.9%	—	62.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	44.0%	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	39.8%	28.5%	45.9%	—	55.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	29.8%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	45.6%	13.7%	45.6%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	41.0%	7.5%	99.2%	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	35.2%	10.0%	39.6%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	32.5%	11.9%	35.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	33.1%	10.6%	34.2%	55.0%	46.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	34.9%	10.3%	33.7%	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	27.3%	7.9%	34.3%	59.3%	46.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	27.6%	7.1%	32.5%	—	43.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	21.2%	5.5%	30.5%	44.2%	41.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	27.2%	4.1%	29.8%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	31.7%	3.4%	37.6%	53.2%	56.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	24.1%	7.3%	25.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	44%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261018-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗