KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

48%

44%

43%

37%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

ICONNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.70u · ICON −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:50+00:00	64.1%	42.6%	76.0%	63.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	64.1%	42.6%	77.5%	63.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	64.1%	42.6%	77.5%	63.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	64.1%	42.6%	77.5%	63.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.5%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.5%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.5%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.5%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.5%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	77.4%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	77.0%	38.1%	77.4%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	77.0%	38.1%	77.4%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	77.0%	38.1%	77.4%	39.0%	70.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	77.1%	38.1%	77.4%	39.0%	70.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	77.1%	40.4%	77.4%	39.0%	70.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	52.7%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	52.7%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	47.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	47.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	47.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	68.5%	43.7%	47.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	47.3%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	47.3%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	47.3%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	47.3%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	65.8%	43.7%	43.2%	47.9%	36.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	67.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗