KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

48%

44%

43%

37%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.3¢Risks 51.30u

ICONNO 48.7¢Risks 48.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.70u · ICON −48.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	34.8%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	7.2%	81.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	40.9%	78.1%	26.3%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	68.3%	63.6%	65.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	69.7%	82.1%	64.9%	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	71.9%	72.6%	39.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	0.2%	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	36.9%	68.5%	55.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	26.0%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	57.8%	69.3%	57.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	31.8%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	48.2%	60.9%	35.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	69.1%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	46.1%	69.6%	31.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	53.0%	75.9%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	59.2%	79.5%	28.5%	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	66.5%	69.3%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	66.9%	79.4%	24.7%	0.0%	42.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	66.4%	74.2%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	66.9%	79.3%	16.8%	31.0%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	58.4%	83.3%	17.5%	—	45.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	65.8%	80.9%	19.9%	0.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	59.0%	81.8%	19.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	51.3%	80.9%	19.1%	23.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	54.2%	80.9%	16.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	54.3%	82.8%	22.2%	35.8%	42.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	60.5%	83.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	67.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗