KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

28%

21%

18%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:26+00:00	59.7%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	59.7%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	59.7%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	59.7%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	59.7%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	61.1%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	61.1%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	61.1%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	61.1%	22.4%	64.4%	56.7%	72.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:18+00:00	61.1%	22.4%	64.4%	36.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	57.7%	36.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	57.7%	36.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	61.1%	18.2%	57.7%	36.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	60.4%	18.2%	57.7%	36.4%	72.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	60.3%	18.2%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	60.3%	20.8%	57.7%	36.4%	72.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	57.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	57.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	57.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	57.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	57.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	42.0%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	48.4%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	48.4%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	48.4%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	48.4%	20.8%	58.7%	50.0%	43.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	46.0%	21.4%	19.5%	27.7%	18.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	46.0%	21.4%	31.5%	27.7%	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	46.0%	21.4%	31.5%	27.7%	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	46.0%	21.4%	31.5%	27.7%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	69.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	67.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗