KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

28%

21%

18%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

ICONNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.80u · ICON −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	23.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	3.6%	70.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	28.1%	66.4%	16.2%	—	45.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	54.4%	49.3%	50.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	55.3%	70.4%	50.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	57.1%	57.9%	24.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.1%	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	22.5%	52.5%	38.5%	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	14.2%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	40.5%	52.6%	39.6%	—	20.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	17.8%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	30.6%	42.7%	20.3%	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	50.9%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	27.9%	51.0%	16.5%	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	33.5%	58.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	62.2%	13.9%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	45.8%	48.9%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	45.6%	60.8%	10.9%	0.0%	23.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	44.4%	53.4%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	44.2%	59.2%	6.1%	14.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	34.7%	64.1%	6.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	41.3%	59.9%	7.1%	0.0%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	33.7%	60.2%	6.4%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	26.2%	58.0%	6.1%	7.9%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	27.6%	56.9%	4.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	26.8%	58.6%	6.8%	13.8%	18.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	31.1%	59.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	69.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	67.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗