KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

47%

45%

44%

10%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

EPSNO 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.60u · EPS −63.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:21+00:00	55.7%	20.9%	56.4%	53.8%	46.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	55.7%	20.9%	56.4%	53.8%	46.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	55.7%	20.9%	58.8%	53.8%	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	55.7%	20.9%	58.8%	53.8%	46.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	55.7%	20.9%	58.8%	53.8%	46.8%
2026-10-13T08:02:48+00:00	54.5%	20.9%	58.8%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	54.5%	20.9%	58.8%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	54.5%	20.9%	58.8%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	54.5%	20.9%	58.8%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	54.5%	20.9%	58.8%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	54.5%	8.9%	42.2%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	54.5%	8.9%	42.2%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	54.5%	8.9%	42.2%	42.7%	61.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	48.5%	8.9%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	48.5%	8.9%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	48.5%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	42.2%	42.7%	62.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	50.0%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	44.7%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	44.7%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	44.7%	10.0%	47.4%	44.5%	62.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	71.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗