KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

47%

45%

44%

10%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.4¢Risks 36.40u

EPSNO 63.6¢Risks 63.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.60u · EPS −63.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	1.6%	58.1%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	17.5%	52.8%	9.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	39.9%	35.0%	36.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	40.2%	56.1%	35.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	41.3%	42.1%	14.0%	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.0%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	12.0%	36.1%	23.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	6.7%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	24.8%	35.4%	24.1%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	8.5%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	16.6%	25.9%	9.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	32.6%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	14.2%	32.1%	7.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	17.7%	38.2%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	21.2%	41.8%	5.5%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	26.2%	28.8%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	25.5%	39.2%	3.8%	0.0%	9.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	24.0%	31.5%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	23.3%	36.3%	1.7%	4.8%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	16.0%	40.5%	1.6%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	19.9%	35.4%	1.8%	0.0%	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	14.3%	34.9%	1.5%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	9.5%	31.9%	1.3%	1.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	9.8%	30.0%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	8.9%	30.5%	1.3%	3.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	71.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	67.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗