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KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
AIFS
3%
ICON
3%
EPS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
WN2NO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.85u · WN2 −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00IFS HRES: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:0010-15 07:4910-16 05:5510-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:07+00:002.1%4.6%1.3%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:002.1%4.6%1.3%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:002.1%4.6%1.3%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:002.1%4.6%1.3%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:002.1%4.6%1.3%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:002.1%4.6%0.9%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:002.1%6.5%0.9%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:002.1%6.5%0.9%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:002.1%6.5%0.9%17.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:002.0%6.5%0.9%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:002.0%5.8%0.9%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:54+00:002.0%5.8%0.9%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:002.0%5.8%1.0%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:002.0%5.8%1.0%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:002.0%5.8%1.0%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:002.0%5.8%1.0%17.9%3.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:004.7%5.8%1.0%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:004.7%5.8%1.0%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:004.7%5.8%1.0%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:004.7%5.8%1.0%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:004.7%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:004.7%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:004.7%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:008.5%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:008.5%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:008.5%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:008.5%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:008.5%5.2%1.7%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:008.5%5.2%1.9%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:008.5%5.2%1.9%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:008.5%5.2%1.9%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:008.5%5.2%1.9%20.0%6.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:005.9%5.2%1.9%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:005.9%5.2%1.9%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:005.9%5.2%1.9%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:005.9%5.2%1.9%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:005.9%2.8%1.8%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:005.9%2.8%1.8%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:005.9%2.8%1.8%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:005.9%2.8%1.8%20.0%5.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:003.2%2.9%1.8%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:003.2%2.3%1.8%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:003.2%2.3%1.8%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:003.2%2.3%1.8%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:003.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:003.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:003.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%5.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:004.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%2.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:004.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%2.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:004.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%2.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:004.2%2.3%1.5%8.6%2.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:004.2%2.3%1.5%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:004.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:004.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:004.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:003.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:003.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:003.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:003.2%2.3%1.6%7.6%2.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend11%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast8%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
IFS HRES8%68.9°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single3%70.4°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON3%70.1°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%68.5°F3.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗