WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
AIFS
3%
ICON
3%
EPS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
WN2NO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.85u · WN2 −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 98.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 98.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-11 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0076.4%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0090.2%————35.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:004.2%————14.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0029.2%————15.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0074.3%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0018.9%————12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0081.4%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0030.6%————19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0018.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:008.5%————19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.9%————17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:003.9%————22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:004.1%————19.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0080.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0068.0%————20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0071.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0074.4%————9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0037.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0031.9%————10.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0056.5%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0025.2%—98.0%——14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—52.5%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0028.0%————17.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0018.5%—37.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.0%—27.8%——10.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:007.9%—5.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0015.1%67.0%2.9%——9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0015.4%—4.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.2%20.4%3.3%33.6%—9.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.1%—4.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.3%5.7%7.4%6.9%—10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.9%—0.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0012.5%4.8%1.9%6.3%—10.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0014.5%—1.4%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.6%3.8%3.6%17.9%—17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0013.0%94.9%4.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0025.1%17.8%4.1%8.3%—19.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0019.6%26.0%3.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0010.1%6.5%3.4%6.8%—17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0010.3%19.0%1.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0017.2%9.0%4.8%15.4%—11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0026.9%2.7%2.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0023.2%8.6%2.4%16.5%—12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0014.0%5.7%1.4%——7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0017.0%3.8%0.9%16.3%—9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0012.7%2.2%1.8%——7.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0010.4%1.9%0.7%16.9%98.9%7.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0010.7%1.7%0.9%99.4%—5.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:008.5%1.4%0.5%21.5%10.5%5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:005.5%2.2%0.3%19.1%—4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.2%1.1%0.3%15.1%98.6%5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:007.7%1.5%0.2%14.3%—5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:008.9%2.0%0.2%12.7%10.1%5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:008.1%1.4%0.1%13.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.5%1.1%0.1%7.8%3.5%2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.5%0.1%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend11%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
NWS forecast8%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
IFS HRES8%68.9°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single3%70.4°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON3%70.1°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%68.5°F3.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗