KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

67%

48%

41%

31%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

EPSNO 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.10u · EPS −49.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:26+00:00	67.8%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	67.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	67.8%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	67.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	67.8%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	67.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	67.8%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	67.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	67.8%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	67.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	66.1%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	66.1%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	66.1%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	66.1%	26.8%	74.0%	59.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:18+00:00	66.1%	26.8%	74.0%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	66.1%	8.1%	62.0%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	66.1%	8.1%	62.0%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	66.1%	8.1%	62.0%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	51.5%	8.1%	62.0%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	52.2%	8.1%	61.8%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	61.8%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	61.8%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	61.8%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	62.6%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	62.6%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	52.2%	9.5%	62.6%	32.4%	59.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	45.6%	9.5%	62.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	45.6%	9.5%	62.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	45.6%	9.5%	62.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	45.6%	9.5%	62.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	45.6%	9.5%	62.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	45.6%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	45.6%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	45.6%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	39.8%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	39.8%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	39.8%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	39.8%	9.6%	66.6%	51.2%	56.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	74.1%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	74.1%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	66.3%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	66.3%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	66.3%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	77.0%	38.6%	66.3%	54.9%	64.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	73.9%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	66.3%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	74.1%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	74.1%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	74.7%	38.6%	74.1%	49.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	71.2%	38.6%	74.1%	47.9%	41.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	71.2%	38.6%	74.1%	47.9%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	71.2%	38.6%	74.1%	47.9%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	71.2%	38.6%	74.1%	47.9%	41.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	71.2%	38.6%	74.1%	47.9%	41.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	71.2%	30.6%	67.2%	47.9%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	73.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	72.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗