KATL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

67%

48%

41%

31%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

EPSNO 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.10u · EPS −49.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	66.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	5.0%	10.2%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	50.0%	6.9%	10.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	35.7%	59.4%	33.0%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	31.6%	35.8%	41.7%	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	52.4%	47.6%	17.9%	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.0%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	49.2%	55.0%	12.9%	—	30.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	50.9%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	35.4%	70.1%	5.9%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	47.3%	78.5%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	48.2%	74.9%	11.9%	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	64.8%	69.9%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	50.0%	72.1%	15.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	59.9%	70.9%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	57.2%	74.9%	34.0%	0.0%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	66.5%	75.5%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	66.9%	74.5%	26.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	56.7%	73.3%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	51.2%	72.0%	21.5%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	58.4%	74.7%	18.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	56.2%	79.2%	17.4%	25.6%	32.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	59.0%	80.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	73.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	72.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗