KATL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

28%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +84.25u · EPS −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:19+00:00	37.4%	1.0%	40.5%	16.8%	13.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	37.4%	0.4%	36.6%	16.8%	13.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	37.4%	0.4%	36.6%	16.8%	13.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	37.4%	0.4%	36.6%	16.8%	13.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	17.3%	0.4%	36.6%	16.8%	13.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	17.3%	0.4%	36.7%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	36.7%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	36.7%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	36.7%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	34.5%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	34.5%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	17.3%	0.5%	34.5%	16.8%	13.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	34.5%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	34.5%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	34.5%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	34.5%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	34.5%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	27.9%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:50+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	36.7%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	32.3%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	32.3%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	23.8%	0.5%	32.3%	15.6%	48.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:09+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.3%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.3%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.3%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.3%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.3%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.6%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.6%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	32.6%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	32.6%	38.6%	57.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	32.6%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	32.6%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:56+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	32.6%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	28.2%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	28.2%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	28.2%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	19.7%	0.5%	28.2%	38.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	52.2%	0.5%	28.2%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	52.2%	0.5%	28.2%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	52.2%	0.5%	28.2%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	52.2%	0.5%	28.2%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	52.2%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	52.2%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	52.2%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	31.9%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	47.8%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	47.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	52.4%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	52.4%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	52.4%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	52.4%	0.6%	37.4%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	52.4%	0.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	52.4%	0.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	52.4%	0.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	52.4%	0.8%	26.3%	30.9%	41.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	46.0%	0.8%	26.3%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	26.3%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	26.3%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	26.3%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	46.0%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.8%	26.1%	36.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.8%	21.8%	36.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	40.4%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	24.0%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	31.3%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	31.3%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	42.8%	1.4%	31.3%	21.8%	36.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	42.2%	1.4%	31.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	42.2%	1.4%	31.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	42.2%	1.4%	31.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	42.2%	1.4%	31.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	42.2%	1.4%	31.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	42.2%	2.3%	35.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	42.2%	2.3%	35.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	42.2%	2.3%	35.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	32.3%	2.3%	35.3%	18.9%	32.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	35.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	35.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	35.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	35.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	33.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	33.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	32.4%	2.3%	33.4%	18.9%	32.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	33.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	33.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	33.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	33.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	33.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	37.2%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	31.5%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	39.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	39.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	39.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	33.9%	2.3%	39.4%	11.1%	30.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	36.3%	2.3%	39.4%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	36.3%	2.3%	39.4%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	36.3%	2.3%	39.4%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	36.3%	2.3%	39.4%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	36.3%	2.3%	39.4%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	36.3%	0.8%	29.7%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	36.3%	0.8%	29.7%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	36.3%	0.8%	29.7%	7.9%	14.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	32.0%	1.1%	29.7%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	32.0%	1.1%	29.7%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	29.7%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	29.7%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	28.6%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	28.6%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	28.6%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	32.0%	0.8%	28.6%	7.9%	14.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	28.6%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	28.6%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	28.6%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	28.6%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	26.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	30.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	30.7%	6.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	27.9%	0.8%	30.7%	6.4%	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	78.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	74.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗