KATL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

28%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u

EPSNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +84.25u · EPS −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	4.8%	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	56.5%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.7%	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	46.8%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	2.0%	—	18.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	25.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.4%	23.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	18.9%	3.3%	0.9%	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	34.3%	17.0%	8.4%	11.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	21.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	21.6%	19.5%	3.6%	11.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	19.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	21.2%	29.5%	1.5%	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.0%	11.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	15.7%	14.3%	4.3%	11.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	13.7%	15.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	19.6%	17.8%	2.2%	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	16.6%	17.2%	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	16.6%	14.9%	4.3%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	11.3%	18.4%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	11.6%	21.0%	2.1%	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	11.9%	13.0%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	4.9%	17.6%	0.9%	2.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	6.2%	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	4.7%	13.1%	0.8%	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.5%	9.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	31%	78.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	74.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	73.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗