KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

71%

68%

53%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.9¢Risks 70.85u

EPSNO 29.1¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · EPS −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:09+00:00	85.7%	48.6%	71.7%	60.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	85.7%	48.6%	71.7%	60.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	85.7%	48.6%	71.7%	60.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	85.7%	48.6%	71.7%	60.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	85.7%	48.6%	71.7%	60.0%	35.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	81.3%	54.5%	83.8%	60.7%	76.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	81.3%	54.5%	87.6%	60.7%	76.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	81.3%	54.5%	87.6%	60.7%	76.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	81.3%	54.5%	87.6%	60.7%	76.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	84.3%	54.5%	87.6%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	84.3%	54.5%	87.6%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	84.3%	54.5%	87.6%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	84.3%	54.5%	87.6%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	84.3%	54.5%	87.6%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	84.3%	69.9%	92.1%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	84.3%	69.9%	92.1%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	84.3%	69.9%	92.1%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	80.7%	69.9%	92.1%	62.9%	79.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	80.7%	69.9%	92.1%	62.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	77.1%	43.9%	84.6%	57.9%	69.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	77.1%	43.9%	87.6%	57.9%	69.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	77.1%	43.9%	87.6%	57.9%	69.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	77.1%	43.9%	87.6%	57.9%	69.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	80.0%	43.9%	87.6%	71.2%	68.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	80.0%	43.9%	87.6%	71.2%	68.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	80.0%	43.9%	87.6%	71.2%	68.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	80.0%	43.9%	87.6%	71.2%	68.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	80.0%	43.9%	87.6%	71.2%	68.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	80.0%	52.9%	88.8%	71.2%	68.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	78.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	76.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	74.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗