KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

80%

71%

68%

53%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.9¢Risks 70.85u

EPSNO 29.1¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.15u · EPS −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	69.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	60.6%	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	66.4%	—	39.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	62.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	7.7%	36.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	70.8%	41.6%	18.0%	47.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	75.1%	55.8%	14.4%	46.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	42.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	61.3%	39.4%	47.7%	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	66.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	67.7%	73.2%	37.5%	53.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	2.6%	75.0%	—	46.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	60.7%	76.8%	33.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	39.8%	73.3%	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	57.0%	76.6%	34.6%	47.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	55.4%	74.3%	—	47.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	57.3%	79.1%	22.3%	46.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.5%	75.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	61.5%	77.5%	33.0%	53.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	58.0%	76.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	78.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	76.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	74.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗