KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

70%

51%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

EPSNO 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.85u · EPS −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	84.3%	39.5%	85.5%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	85.5%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	85.5%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	85.5%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	84.3%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	69.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	69.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	69.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	84.6%	47.5%	69.9%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	84.6%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	74.6%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	76.2%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	76.2%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	76.2%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	76.2%	42.1%	82.2%	50.6%	69.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	80.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	79.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	80.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	75.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	74.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗