KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

70%

51%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

EPSNO 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.85u · EPS −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	26.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	57.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	86.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	54.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	5.9%	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	53.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	7.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	57.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	7.2%	46.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	65.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	54.2%	63.1%	13.0%	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	63.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	46.4%	60.1%	31.7%	39.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	53.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	16.0%	63.5%	25.8%	30.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	52.3%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	25.5%	50.8%	26.1%	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	1.9%	57.3%	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	14.3%	50.0%	9.3%	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	13.2%	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	22.8%	43.0%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	16.1%	42.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	80.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	79.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	80.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	75.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	74.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗