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KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
37%
WN2
33%
AIFS
31%
EPS
28%
HRES
12%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.95u
VS
HRESNO 75.0¢Risks 75.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.05u · HRES −75.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.3% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.0% · 2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.5% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00IFS HRES: 12.5% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00ICON: 31.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:0010-18 04:1310-18 09:3210-18 14:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:0033.8%52.8%40.0%19.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:0033.8%52.8%37.0%19.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:0033.8%52.8%37.0%19.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:0033.8%52.8%37.0%19.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:0033.8%52.8%37.0%19.3%31.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:0031.5%52.8%37.0%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0031.5%52.8%37.0%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:0031.5%52.8%37.0%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:0031.5%52.8%37.0%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:0031.5%52.8%37.0%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:0031.5%27.3%33.5%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:0031.5%27.3%33.5%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:0031.5%27.3%33.5%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:0030.9%27.9%33.4%12.5%37.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:0030.9%27.9%33.4%12.5%37.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON37%72.2°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend37%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%72.5°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single31%71.8°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%72.8°F2.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES12%66.9°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗