KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

33%

31%

28%

12%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.95u

HRESNO 75.0¢Risks 75.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.05u · HRES −75.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	56.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	22.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	27.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	71.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	59.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	76.4%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	54.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	4.5%	43.3%	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	39.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	4.9%	41.6%	20.4%	21.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	29.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	13.6%	30.4%	16.5%	14.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.0%	31.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	2.9%	20.6%	5.5%	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.5%	20.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	37%	72.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	72.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	71.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	72.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗