KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

33%

28%

28%

15%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.1¢Risks 27.05u

HRESNO 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.95u · HRES −72.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	50.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	18.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	22.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	66.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	53.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	71.1%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	47.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	3.1%	36.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	3.3%	34.9%	15.8%	16.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	23.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	10.0%	24.3%	12.4%	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	11.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	4.1%	25.1%	10.7%	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	1.8%	15.4%	3.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.2%	14.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	74.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	69.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	72.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	68.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗