KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 5.1¢Risks 1.26u

EPSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.74u · EPS −23.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	45.8%	9.3%	34.3%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	45.8%	9.3%	34.3%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	45.8%	9.3%	34.3%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	45.8%	9.3%	34.3%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	45.8%	9.3%	34.3%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	45.8%	4.3%	27.8%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	45.8%	4.3%	27.8%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	45.8%	4.3%	27.8%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	27.8%	7.3%	14.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	27.9%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	27.9%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	27.9%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	27.9%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	12.4%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	12.4%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	7.7%	4.3%	12.4%	7.3%	15.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	12.4%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	12.4%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	12.4%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	12.4%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	12.4%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	7.2%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	10.9%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	9.5%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	9.5%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	9.5%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	9.9%	4.3%	9.5%	5.0%	16.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	8.0%	4.3%	9.5%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	8.0%	4.3%	9.5%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	8.0%	4.3%	9.5%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	8.0%	4.3%	9.5%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	8.0%	4.3%	9.5%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	8.0%	0.9%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	7.7%	1.0%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	7.7%	1.0%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	6.7%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	5.9%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	5.9%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	5.9%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	5.9%	2.8%	15.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	5.8%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	5.7%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	7.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	7.9%	2.3%	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	7.5%	0.7%	7.9%	2.3%	9.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	11%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	9%	70.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	71.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	66.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗