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KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
WN2
8%
AIFS
8%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 5.1¢Risks 1.26u
VS
EPSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.74u · EPS −23.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-09 06:0010-14 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.3%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%———1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0031.1%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0018.6%———16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0021.6%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.6%———17.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0029.2%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0038.0%———16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0015.2%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0065.5%———20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0050.0%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0051.6%———35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0052.7%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0051.6%———32.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0056.4%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0053.2%———38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0036.4%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0045.2%———37.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0032.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.5%———22.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0037.4%—29.2%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0038.2%———12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0040.3%—6.8%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0023.6%———23.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0039.4%—8.7%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0013.7%———20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0033.2%—42.0%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0013.5%———17.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0023.0%—28.7%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0020.2%—46.1%—16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0024.2%—23.2%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0023.8%0.5%15.5%—9.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.8%—12.7%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%13.7%4.4%4.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:002.1%—7.5%——
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.7%2.2%7.6%2.9%2.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:001.5%—2.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.9%0.6%7.6%2.2%1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.1%—3.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.4%0.2%3.4%0.5%1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.0%3.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%73.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON9%70.1°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%72.9°F4.7°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single8%71.7°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES2%66.3°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%71.9°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%71.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗