WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
53%
ICON
46%
AIFS
38%
HRES
20%
EPS
10%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u
VS
EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:0040.4%20.1%43.8%38.4%61.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:0040.4%20.1%51.6%38.4%61.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:0040.4%20.1%51.6%38.4%61.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0040.4%20.1%51.6%38.4%61.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:0038.4%20.1%51.6%19.8%45.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0038.4%20.1%51.6%19.8%45.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0038.4%20.1%51.6%19.8%45.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0038.4%20.1%51.6%19.8%45.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0038.4%20.1%51.6%19.8%45.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:0038.4%9.7%53.4%19.8%45.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%72.9°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend46%72.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON46%71.7°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single38%70.9°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%66.9°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble10%68.2°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗