KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

46%

38%

20%

10%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.6¢Risks 31.55u

EPSNO 68.5¢Risks 68.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.45u · EPS −68.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	11.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	48.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	41.6%	—	58.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	51.3%	—	35.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	4.2%	49.3%	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	39.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	38.2%	40.3%	8.7%	28.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	39.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	20.4%	36.4%	8.7%	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	38.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	71.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	70.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	68.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗