KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.9¢Risks 3.45u

EPSNO 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.55u · EPS −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	5.1%	1.8%	11.1%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	5.1%	1.8%	11.1%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	5.1%	1.8%	11.1%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	5.1%	1.8%	11.1%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	5.1%	1.8%	11.1%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.8%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.6%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.6%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.6%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	6.6%	2.9%	10.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.6%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.6%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.6%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.6%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	6.1%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:29+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	6.3%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	9.2%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	9.2%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	9.2%	8.4%	34.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	9.2%	2.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	9.2%	2.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	9.2%	2.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	9.2%	2.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	9.2%	2.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	5.6%	0.0%	7.9%	2.8%	13.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	71.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗