KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.9¢Risks 3.45u

EPSNO 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.55u · EPS −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	10.1%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	3.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	9.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	13.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.2%	11.4%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	6.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.3%	6.9%	0.5%	3.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.4%	2.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	5.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	14%	71.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	66.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗