KAUS / Sat Aug 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-08-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-07-31T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	6.6%	—	—	22.0%
2026-07-31T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-08-01T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-01T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	96.8%	—	—	94.4%
2026-08-01T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	98.2%	—	—	93.6%
2026-08-02T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-02T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	91.1%	—	—	93.1%
2026-08-02T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	98.2%	—	—	92.1%
2026-08-03T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	92.1%
2026-08-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	97.8%	—	—	92.7%
2026-08-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	98.7%	—	—	90.3%
2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	98.6%	—	—	92.2%
2026-08-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	99.1%	—	14.3%	92.5%
2026-08-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-08-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-08-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	99.6%	—	—	95.1%
2026-08-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-08-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	99.7%	—	—	95.0%
2026-08-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	9.9%	99.5%	—	—	95.8%
2026-08-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	99.2%	99.9%	11.9%	—	96.2%
2026-08-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	96.1%	99.7%	91.0%	—	95.6%
2026-08-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	99.4%	99.8%	93.5%	—	96.4%
2026-08-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	99.9%	—	—	84.1%
2026-08-10T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.7%	99.8%	98.9%	—	97.1%
2026-08-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	96.7%
2026-08-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	99.7%	100.0%	98.3%	—	97.5%
2026-08-10T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	96.6%	100.0%	—	—	97.6%
2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	99.9%	100.0%	98.6%	—	97.5%
2026-08-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	99.8%	100.0%	—	—	97.9%
2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.3%	—	98.6%
2026-08-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	99.6%	100.0%	—	—	99.1%
2026-08-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.3%
2026-08-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	98.7%
2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.5%
2026-08-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.5%
2026-08-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.6%
2026-08-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	100.0%	100.0%	2.6%	—	99.6%
2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-08-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.6%
2026-08-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	0.2%	99.9%
2026-08-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%
2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-08-14T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-08-15T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-15T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-08-15T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20260815-TMAX-GE90
Opened Jul 31 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Sat Aug 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗