KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

12%

<1%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

WN2NO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.50u · WN2 −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	4.3%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	46.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	3.2%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	11.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	3.2%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	11.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	3.2%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	11.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	3.2%	66.3%	2.8%	26.6%	11.0%
2026-10-14T10:34:04+00:00	3.2%	66.3%	2.8%	19.5%	11.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	3.2%	26.4%	0.6%	19.5%	11.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	3.2%	26.4%	0.6%	19.5%	11.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	3.2%	26.4%	0.6%	19.5%	11.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	3.1%	26.4%	0.6%	19.5%	11.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	3.1%	26.4%	0.6%	19.5%	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	38%	78.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1429
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0697
IFS HRES	20%	75.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0380
ICON	12%	73.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0132
AIFS Single	3%	70.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0010
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗