KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

51%

49%

40%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

EPSNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.40u · EPS −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:04+00:00	62.8%	1.2%	58.6%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	62.8%	2.5%	73.2%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	62.8%	2.5%	73.2%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	62.8%	2.5%	73.2%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	63.6%	2.5%	73.2%	29.5%	41.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	63.6%	2.5%	73.2%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	73.2%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	73.2%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	73.2%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	77.4%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	77.4%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	63.6%	2.1%	77.4%	29.5%	40.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	77.4%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	77.4%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	77.4%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	77.4%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	77.4%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	59.4%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:27+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:02+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	74.9%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:21+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	70.5%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	70.5%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	60.3%	2.1%	70.5%	44.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:09+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	70.5%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	70.5%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	70.5%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	70.5%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	61.9%	2.1%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	61.9%	1.9%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	61.9%	1.9%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	57.4%	2.0%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	57.4%	2.0%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:30+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	78.0%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	75.3%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	75.3%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	75.3%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	57.4%	1.8%	75.3%	35.2%	54.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	75.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	58.3%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	67.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	55.9%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	55.9%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	55.9%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	55.9%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	55.9%	1.8%	69.3%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	55.9%	2.9%	79.9%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	55.9%	2.9%	79.9%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	55.9%	2.9%	79.9%	46.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	79.9%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	54.9%	3.2%	79.9%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	54.9%	3.2%	79.9%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	79.9%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	79.9%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	54.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	37.6%	63.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	76.1%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	69.7%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	69.7%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	52.9%	2.9%	69.7%	39.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:52+00:00	54.0%	2.9%	69.7%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	54.0%	2.9%	69.7%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	54.0%	2.9%	69.7%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	54.0%	2.9%	69.7%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	54.0%	2.9%	69.7%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	54.0%	3.6%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	54.0%	3.6%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	54.0%	3.6%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	54.0%	3.6%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	54.0%	3.9%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	72.0%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	77.5%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	77.5%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	77.5%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	54.0%	10.7%	77.5%	38.4%	70.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	77.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	77.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	77.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	77.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	55.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	74.3%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	40.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	40.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	40.5%	48.9%	72.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	51.0%	10.7%	40.5%	48.9%	72.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256
AIFS Single	51%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2601
IFS HRES	49%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
WeatherNext 2	40%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1640
National Blend	13%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
NWS forecast	12%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0149
IFS Ensemble	11%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗