KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

51%

49%

40%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

EPSNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.40u · EPS −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	99.5%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	91.2%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	96.2%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	93.0%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	72.5%	66.4%	82.0%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	6.2%	23.2%	39.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	3.5%	9.3%	45.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	21.2%	3.8%	61.8%	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	20.7%	6.3%	63.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	61.8%	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	54.4%	22.1%	67.8%	—	52.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	42.9%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	49.1%	52.8%	76.3%	—	66.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	53.8%	46.2%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	60.6%	55.8%	71.3%	—	52.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	74.3%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	74.1%	53.1%	81.0%	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	61.5%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	59.7%	58.7%	79.4%	—	57.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	61.1%	38.9%	100.0%	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	60.4%	35.2%	80.1%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	60.7%	32.5%	78.4%	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	57.4%	32.0%	74.4%	80.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	65.1%	31.4%	79.1%	—	68.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	60.6%	28.4%	81.8%	83.5%	73.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	54.2%	32.5%	72.4%	—	68.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	37.2%	41.4%	76.6%	79.8%	60.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	44.0%	59.0%	82.8%	—	77.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	43.7%	48.4%	79.7%	80.8%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	38.6%	40.2%	71.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256
AIFS Single	51%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2601
IFS HRES	49%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
WeatherNext 2	40%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1640
National Blend	13%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
NWS forecast	12%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0149
IFS Ensemble	11%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗