KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

44%

38%

26%

26%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.50u · ICON −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	24.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	24.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	24.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	59.2%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	61.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	61.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	61.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	29.7%	64.8%	61.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	29.7%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	61.9%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	60.1%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	60.1%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	60.1%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	60.1%	92.4%	39.5%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	36.1%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	36.1%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	30.3%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	30.3%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	30.3%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	49.0%	83.2%	30.3%	62.4%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	30.3%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	30.3%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	30.3%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	30.3%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	36.5%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	44.1%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	44.1%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	44.1%	83.2%	25.9%	37.6%	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	79.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗