KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

44%

38%

26%

26%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

ICONNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.50u · ICON −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	0.2%	77.7%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	97.8%	91.5%	0.5%	—	73.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	90.0%	22.6%	72.8%	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	93.7%	56.8%	43.2%	—	73.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	64.8%	78.8%	25.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	39.3%	66.2%	20.1%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.4%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	50.9%	64.6%	20.2%	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	47.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	52.8%	39.1%	19.0%	—	46.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	45.3%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	48.0%	50.0%	22.5%	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	50.0%	66.5%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	55.1%	73.2%	35.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	47.9%	52.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	56.5%	23.0%	36.1%	0.0%	40.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	44.4%	46.6%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	28.0%	48.8%	35.2%	14.7%	26.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	26.3%	52.4%	34.7%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	33.1%	38.9%	37.7%	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	52.6%	38.5%	26.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	36.8%	48.7%	38.1%	38.1%	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	63.7%	67.5%	51.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	61.4%	35.8%	48.5%	44.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	79.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	78.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	74.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗