KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

27%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

WN2NO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.90u · WN2 −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:49+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	22.6%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	22.6%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	22.6%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	22.6%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	22.6%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:38+00:00	21.0%	52.6%	14.2%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	21.0%	64.3%	14.2%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	21.0%	64.3%	14.2%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	10.2%	64.3%	14.2%	87.8%	3.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	10.3%	64.3%	14.3%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00	10.3%	64.3%	14.3%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	10.3%	65.5%	14.3%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	10.3%	65.5%	8.6%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	10.3%	65.5%	8.6%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	10.3%	65.5%	8.6%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	10.3%	65.5%	8.6%	87.8%	3.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	8.6%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	8.6%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	8.6%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	8.6%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	0.8%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	4.5%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	4.5%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	4.5%	65.5%	2.1%	27.4%	84.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	92.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	84.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	83.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	78.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗