KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

27%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

WN2NO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.90u · WN2 −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	40.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	82.9%	62.4%	0.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	57.3%	3.2%	31.0%	—	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	64.9%	16.4%	9.3%	—	30.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	20.6%	34.5%	3.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.3%	20.1%	1.8%	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.0%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	9.7%	17.2%	1.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.8%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	9.4%	4.8%	1.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.1%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.5%	7.2%	1.3%	—	4.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	6.6%	14.0%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.8%	17.6%	2.8%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.0%	6.2%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.0%	0.9%	2.3%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.3%	3.8%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	3.8%	1.7%	0.2%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	4.0%	1.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.6%	1.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.0%	1.3%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	5.0%	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	0.5%	1.3%	1.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	92.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	84.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	83.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	78.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗