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KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
88%
ICON
60%
HRES
50%
AIFS
49%
WN2
30%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u
VS
WN2NO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.10u · WN2 −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 47.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:0047.4%88.3%30.5%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:0047.4%88.3%30.5%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:0047.4%88.3%30.5%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:0047.4%88.3%31.4%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:0047.4%88.3%31.4%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:0047.4%88.3%31.4%64.1%54.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:0049.1%88.3%31.4%64.1%59.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:0049.1%88.3%31.4%64.1%59.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:0049.1%88.3%31.4%64.1%59.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:0049.1%88.3%31.4%64.1%59.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:0049.1%88.3%31.4%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0049.1%88.3%29.5%50.0%59.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble88%84.6°F2.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend63%83.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON60%82.7°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
IFS HRES50%81.5°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single49%81.4°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%79.5°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗