KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

60%

50%

49%

30%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

WN2NO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.10u · WN2 −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	57.5%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	64.0%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	44.6%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	86.3%	28.1%	0.4%	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	46.4%	78.0%	23.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	40.9%	13.8%	34.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	33.7%	38.2%	20.1%	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	40.9%	37.7%	18.9%	—	47.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	15.7%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	40.5%	39.6%	20.8%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	43.7%	55.4%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	45.4%	53.7%	25.1%	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	39.7%	57.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	41.3%	53.9%	33.9%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	43.0%	53.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	43.9%	54.1%	20.4%	0.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	48.9%	56.3%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	52.2%	53.3%	27.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	50.0%	38.9%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	48.8%	36.3%	27.0%	0.0%	31.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	48.8%	35.9%	28.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	56.2%	37.7%	26.6%	37.7%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	57.7%	31.4%	25.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	55.4%	42.0%	25.1%	28.4%	27.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	56.9%	33.8%	27.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	72.0%	30.5%	33.1%	41.4%	42.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	61.9%	41.0%	—	26.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	84.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	83.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	82.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	81.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	79.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗