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KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
41%
HRES
29%
EPS
23%
AIFS
15%
WN2
9%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.95u
VS
WN2NO 75.0¢Risks 75.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.05u · WN2 −75.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 41.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:0027.6%22.6%8.5%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0027.6%22.6%8.5%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0027.6%22.6%8.5%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0027.6%22.6%6.1%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0027.6%22.6%6.1%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0027.6%22.6%6.1%19.7%44.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:0014.9%22.6%6.1%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:0014.9%22.6%6.1%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0014.9%22.6%6.1%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:0014.9%22.6%6.1%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0014.9%22.6%6.1%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0014.9%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:0014.9%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0014.9%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0015.4%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0015.4%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0015.4%22.6%8.9%28.7%41.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend63%87.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
ICON41%83.9°F7.1°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS HRES29%81.8°F6.6°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single15%80.0°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%79.2°F4.7°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗