KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

29%

23%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.9¢Risks 24.95u

WN2NO 75.0¢Risks 75.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +75.05u · WN2 −75.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	33.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	38.4%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.6%	20.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	65.1%	9.9%	0.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	20.4%	51.5%	7.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	16.0%	3.2%	12.2%	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.1%	13.6%	5.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	14.3%	12.5%	4.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	13.1%	12.7%	4.5%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.5%	22.2%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.9%	20.3%	5.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.3%	22.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	11.6%	19.0%	8.2%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	11.9%	17.7%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	11.8%	17.6%	3.2%	0.0%	5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.8%	18.3%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	14.9%	15.5%	4.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	12.9%	7.9%	0.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.6%	6.5%	3.8%	0.0%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.8%	5.8%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	13.7%	5.9%	3.0%	5.9%	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.5%	3.7%	2.6%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.3%	6.1%	2.2%	2.8%	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	11.1%	3.5%	2.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	19.1%	2.5%	2.9%	4.7%	5.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	11.2%	4.1%	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	63%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	41%	83.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	81.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	80.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	79.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗