KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

22%

16%

14%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.5¢Risks 22.50u

WN2NO 77.5¢Risks 77.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.50u · WN2 −77.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:00+00:00	3.1%	55.9%	7.0%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	3.1%	55.9%	7.0%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	3.1%	55.9%	7.0%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	3.1%	55.9%	7.0%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	3.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	3.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	3.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	3.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	2.8%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	13.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	12.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	71.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:38+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	71.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	71.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	6.9%	46.9%	71.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	6.9%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	15.1%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	9.4%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	71.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	39.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	39.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	39.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	7.4%	50.6%	39.4%
2026-10-14T10:34:07+00:00	8.7%	43.4%	7.4%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	8.7%	13.4%	5.3%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	8.7%	13.4%	5.3%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	8.7%	13.4%	5.3%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	20.9%	13.4%	5.3%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	21.8%	13.5%	5.6%	15.8%	39.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	87.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	87.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
ICON	39%	84.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	82.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	79.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗