KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

24%

19%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

WN2NO 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.90u · WN2 −73.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:31+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	19.6%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	19.6%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	23.3%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	23.3%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	23.3%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	34.8%	41.0%	23.3%	54.2%	40.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	23.3%	41.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	23.3%	41.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	23.3%	41.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	23.3%	41.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	19.7%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	34.2%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	34.2%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	34.2%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	34.2%	41.0%	24.0%	41.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	14.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	14.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	14.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	22.2%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	35.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	43.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	43.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	43.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	17.8%	34.5%	43.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	17.8%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	24.7%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	19.1%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	16.5%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	16.5%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	28.6%	54.6%	16.5%	38.4%	43.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:52+00:00	26.3%	54.6%	16.5%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	26.3%	54.6%	16.5%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	26.3%	54.6%	16.5%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	26.3%	54.6%	16.5%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	26.3%	54.6%	16.5%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	26.3%	60.9%	9.8%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	26.3%	60.9%	9.8%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	26.3%	60.9%	9.8%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	27.0%	60.9%	9.8%	52.4%	34.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	27.1%	60.9%	9.9%	52.4%	34.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	7.8%	31.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	10.4%	31.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	10.4%	31.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	10.4%	31.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	20.4%	50.0%	10.4%	31.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	18.7%	50.0%	10.4%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	18.7%	50.0%	10.4%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	18.7%	50.0%	10.4%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	18.7%	50.0%	10.4%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	18.7%	46.0%	6.1%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	18.7%	46.0%	6.1%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	18.7%	46.0%	6.1%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	18.7%	46.0%	6.1%	31.9%	24.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	18.7%	46.1%	6.1%	31.9%	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	86.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	82.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗