KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

32%

24%

19%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

WN2NO 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.90u · WN2 −73.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	25.7%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	2.4%	52.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	26.9%	34.9%	0.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	16.5%	40.6%	9.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	12.2%	35.1%	7.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	15.9%	14.9%	19.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	21.9%	26.5%	18.9%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	32.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	21.4%	25.5%	11.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	21.5%	35.9%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	20.3%	35.6%	8.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	21.7%	32.6%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	19.7%	33.0%	7.5%	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	17.0%	29.1%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	16.3%	25.1%	5.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	22.0%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	23.8%	23.8%	4.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	23.1%	21.4%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	22.4%	20.7%	4.8%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	24.4%	17.5%	4.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	30.9%	12.4%	5.9%	4.0%	13.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.8%	8.7%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	86.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	84.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	82.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗