KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 21 · 06:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

WN2NO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	16.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.0%	38.7%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	16.6%	23.0%	0.0%	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	9.0%	27.2%	4.6%	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.0%	22.2%	3.5%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.1%	7.5%	10.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	11.6%	14.8%	9.7%	—	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.1%	19.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	10.9%	13.6%	5.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	10.8%	20.9%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.8%	20.3%	3.4%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.4%	17.7%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	17.7%	2.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.3%	14.6%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.7%	11.8%	1.6%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.6%	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.4%	10.4%	1.1%	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.7%	8.7%	0.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.0%	8.1%	1.2%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	9.7%	6.2%	0.9%	—	2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.0%	3.7%	1.4%	0.9%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	2.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.2%	8.9%	1.6%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	6.2%	2.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.4%	5.5%	1.3%	0.8%	1.8%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.0%	4.1%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	6.1%	—	0.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	18%	85.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 18:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	85.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗